Перегляд за Автор "Gorbatiuk, Kateryna"

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  • Ескіз
    Документ
    Application of fuzzy time series forecasting approach for predicting an enterprise net income level
    (2021) Gorbatiuk, Kateryna; Hryhoruk, Pavlo; Proskurovych, Oksana; Rizun, Nina; Gargasas, Audrius; Raupelienė, Asta; Munjishvili, Tea
    To ensure the sustainable development of an enterprise, it is necessary to properly analyze the enterprise development, to ground the plans and management decisions on effective diagnostics and prediction of current and future economic situation at the enterprise. The article presents a study on the application of fuzzy time series forecasting methods. A new approach is applied to forecasting an enterprise's net income using a fuzzy technique. For testing the methodology, there were used statistical data on the enterprise net income level of the Ukrainian enterprise from 2002 to 2017. In the method of Stevenson and Potter, it is proposed to use as the universe of discourse, in the process of applying the method for all defined fuzzy sets, the intervals of variation of such indicator as growth rate. The same background as in Stevenson and Porter’s model is used in this article for forecasting the time series levels using the growth rates of the actual data as the universe of discourse. The forecasting results, obtained by this approach, are supposed to have more accuracy rate than other fuzzy time series models. Some modifications of this technique are proposed to obtain a higher accuracy rate and a point forecast one step forward
  • Ескіз
    Документ
    Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Regions’ Socio-Economic Development: The Case of Ukraine
    (2021) Григорук, Павло Михайлович; Хрущ, Ніла Анатоліївна; Григорук, Світлана Сергіївна; Приступа, Л.А.; Горбатюк, К.В.; Hryhoruk, Pavlo; Khrushch, Nila; Grygoruk, Svitlana; Prystupa, Liudmyla; Gorbatiuk, Kateryna
    Solving the problems of regional development belongs to the category of strategic and most important of each country. The COVID-19 pandemic has become the biggest challenge for the world economic system, causing a significant impact on the reduction of key macroeconomic indicators, changes in business conditions, which has raised the issue of assessing the social and economic development of regions. The paper considers the application of composite index assessment technology for the consequences of COVID-19 on the development indicators of Ukraine's regions. The comparison was conducted according to the data of the first two quarters of 2019 and 2020. For the study, eight indicators were selected, which by content feature were divided into a subset of economic indicators and a subset of social indicators. A partial composite development index was designed for each subset. The principal components method was used to calculate the weights of the components. The results of the analysis showed that the COVID-19 pandemic had a greater impact on economic development: for each region, there is a decrease in the value of the indicator. While for a partial composite index of social development such a decrease is less noticeable. The reflection of the regions in the space of these composite indices showed that their structure remained virtually unchanged. The analysis of the common composite index of regional development, designed by the convolution of partial composite indices indicators, also showed a decrease in its values in 2020. The paper analyses the measures taken by the Government of Ukraine to neutralize the effects of the pandemic
  • Ескіз
    Документ
    Forecasting Indicators of the Region Intellectual Potential
    (2024) Hryhoruk, Pavlo; Chaikovska, Inna; Proskurovych, Oksana; Gorbatiuk, Kateryna; Valkov, Oleksandr; Chaikovskyi, Maksym
    This study established that in the conditions of Russian aggression, one of the most important factors for the recovery of Ukraine's economy is the effective use and multiplication of the existing intellectual potential of the regions. It was determined that the main structural elements of the intellectual potential of the region are educational, scientific and innovative potential. Fractal analysis and forecasting of key indicators of the intellectual potential of the region were carried out. Within the framework of the educational potential of the region, the following indicators were studied: the coverage of children in preschool education institutions, the number of graduate students, the number of students in general secondary education institutions, the number of teachers in general secondary education institutions, the number of students and trainees in vocational and vocational education institutions. As part of the scientific potential, the indicator of the number of employees involved in the performance of scientific research and development was considered. Within the framework of innovation potential - the specific weight of enterprises that introduced innovations and the number of implemented new technological processes. As a result of the conducted fractal analysis, it was established that all indicators belong to the anti-persistent type of time series. Therefore, the method of exponential smoothing and moving average was used as forecasting. A negative trend in the development of the component indicators of the intellectual potential of the region was revealed. This requires appropriate decisive actions on the part of the authorities in order to activate and grow the educational, scientific and innovative potential, which will lead to the improvement of the indicator of the intellectual potential of the region and its positive impact on the indicators of economic efficiency
  • Ескіз
    Документ
    Fuzzy arithmetic in economic research
    (2021-05-24) Gorbatiuk, Kateryna; Zavhorodnia, Tetiana; Proskurovych, Oksana; Mantalyuk, Olha; Горбатюк, Катерина Володимирівна; Завгородня, Тетяна Павлівна; Проскурович, Оксана Василівна; Манталюк, Ольга Володимирівна
    Many tasks in economic research are based on arithmetic calculations of indicators that reflect the state of economic development. The general incompleteness of publicly available data, designed to solve such problems, has led to the emergence of numerous decision support systems based on fuzzy arithmetic. The article presents a study on the approach aimed at integrating fuzzy information about economic indicators into economic models. The definition of arithmetic operations on fuzzy values is given, and the methods of obtaining the resulting fuzzy indicators with the help of some software tools are considered. Analytical and numerical methods of obtaining the resulting indicators in the form of fuzzy numbers are described and analyzed. A direct calculation algorithm for all arithmetic operations is proposed, utilized, and used for the evaluation of resulting indicators. Also, analytical and numerical methods for obtaining fuzzy results are considered in the article, and some of them are proposed for utilization. On the example of economic indicators used in the labor rationing, the results of an evaluation of some indicators for a technological operation in the form of fuzzy numbers were obtained by different methods and compared. The practical recommendations, given in the article, on the use of fuzzy arithmetic in decision support systems outline the directions of further research.
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    Документ
    Аналіз відмінностей регіонального розвитку в Україні за допомогою нечіткої методики кластеризації
    (2019) Горбатюк, Катерина Володимирівна; Манталюк, Ольга Володимирівна; Проскурович, Оксана Василівна; Вальков, Олександр Броніславович; Gorbatiuk, Kateryna; Mantalyuk, Olha; Proskurovych, Oksana; Valkov, Oleksandr
    Disparities in the development of regions in any country affect the entire national economy. Detecting the disparities can help formulate the proper economic policies for each region by taking action against the factors that slow down the economic growth. This study was conducted with the aim of applying clustering methods to analyse regional disparities based on the economic development indicators of the regions of Ukraine. There were considered fuzzy clustering methods, which generalize partition clustering methods by allowing objects to be partially classified into more than one cluster. Fuzzy clustering technique was applied using R packages to the data sets with the statistic indicators concerned to the economic activities in all administrative regions of Ukraine in 2017. Sets of development indicators for different sectors of economic activity, such as industry, agriculture, construction and services, were reviewed and analysed. The study showed that the regional cluster classification results strongly depend on the input development indicators and the clustering technique used for this purpose. Consideration of different partitions into fuzzy clusters opens up new opportunities in developing recommendations on how to differentiate economic policies in order to achieve maximum growth for the regions and the entire country.
  • Ескіз
    Документ
    Економіко-математична модель вибору інноваційноінвестиційного проєкту за його вмістом
    (Хмельницький національний університет, 2023) Чайковська, Інна; Проскурович, Оксана; Горбатюк, Катерина; Завгородня, Тетяна; Chaikovska, Inna; Proskurovych, Oksana; Gorbatiuk, Kateryna; Zavgorodnia, Tetiana
    У статті вирішено задачу вибору одного з трьох інноваційно-інвестиційних проєктів на ПП «Ліфт Стандарт» з дослідження й експериментальних розробок у сфері технічних наук та обслуговування устаткування промислового призначення згідно області знань «Управління вмістом (масштабом) проєкту». Експерти встановили, що при виборі проєкту необхідним є врахування таких критеріїв та субкритеріїв: цілі (інноваційність; відповідність цілям підприємства; збільшення частки ринку; екологічний аспект); охоплення (потенційні клієнти; потенційні конкуренти; потенційні партнери; ринкові умови); можливості (терміни реалізації; вартість проєкту; наявність ресурсів; можливість формування команди проєкту); обмеження (технологічні труднощі; організаційні труднощі; фінансові труднощі; виробничі труднощі); результати (ймовірність успішної реалізації; прогнозований прибуток; вплив на операційну діяльність підприємства; перспективи розвитку). Результатом практичного застосування методу аналізу ієрархії для обрання одного з трьох проєктів із вказаними характеристиками є розрахунок комплексного показника для кожного з проектів, найбільший з них свідчить, що за даних умов при врахування даних критеріїв та думок експертів, слід обрати саме його. Комплексний показник із врахуванням локальних пріоритетів дав наступний результат: Проєкт 1 – 0,385; Проєкт 2 – 0,383; Проєкт 3 – 0,231. Тому найраціональнішим буде вибір підприємством саме проєкту 1 для реалізації. Застосування методу аналізу ієрархії дозволило надати рекомендації для прийняття ефективного обґрунтованого управлінського рішення.