Application of fuzzy time series forecasting approach for predicting an enterprise net income level
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Дата
2021
Назва журналу
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Анотація
To ensure the sustainable development of an enterprise, it is necessary to properly analyze the
enterprise development, to ground the plans and management decisions on effective diagnostics and
prediction of current and future economic situation at the enterprise. The article presents a study on the
application of fuzzy time series forecasting methods. A new approach is applied to forecasting an enterprise's
net income using a fuzzy technique. For testing the methodology, there were used statistical data on the
enterprise net income level of the Ukrainian enterprise from 2002 to 2017. In the method of Stevenson and
Potter, it is proposed to use as the universe of discourse, in the process of applying the method for all defined
fuzzy sets, the intervals of variation of such indicator as growth rate. The same background as in Stevenson
and Porter’s model is used in this article for forecasting the time series levels using the growth rates of the
actual data as the universe of discourse. The forecasting results, obtained by this approach, are supposed to
have more accuracy rate than other fuzzy time series models. Some modifications of this technique are
proposed to obtain a higher accuracy rate and a point forecast one step forward
Опис
Ключові слова
fuzzy time series, forecasting, enterprise's net income, fuzzy technique
Бібліографічний опис
Gorbatiuk K., Hryhoruk P., Proskurovych O., Rizun N., Gargasas A., Raupelienė A., Munjishvili T. Application of fuzzy time series forecasting approach for predicting an enterprise net income level. E3S Web of Conferences. 2021. Vol.280. Paper 02007. URL: https://is.gd/XzURDO. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202128002007